Introduction
The projections show how Jersey’s population, and associated housing needs, could change over the next 55 years, under a range of net migration scenarios. These outputs help to inform planning for housing, public services and the workforce.
Net migration is a key variable for understanding population changes, and the projections also show how changes in fertility and life expectancy could impact on Jersey’s population size and characteristics.
Headlines
- With annual net migration of +400, and mid-range fertility and mortality assumptions, the total population is projected to be fairly stable in size until around 2050, before beginning to decline.
- A net migration of around +700 per year would be needed to maintain a stable size of working age population in the long term, for mid-range fertility and life expectancy assumptions.
- Under all net migration scenarios projected (up to +800 per year), the number of people aged under 16 decreases from 2024.
- For all migration scenarios, the number of people aged 65 and over will be around, or greater than, 28,000 by 2040, an increase of 36% from 20,600 at the end of 2024.
- With annual net migration of +400, the dependency ratio, the number of non-working age people for every 100 people of working age, will rise from 52.4 at the end of 2024 to 60.9 by 2040.
Report
Methodology
A detailed explanation of the methodology, including how updates in the methodology impact on the outputs, have also been published.
Find data and past reports
The population projections can be explored through an interactive data dashboard.
You can find the population projections data on the open data website.
Supplementary tables to accompany the report are also available:
Find past reports on our release calendar.