These statistics provide estimates of Jersey’s potential housing requirements for the three-year period 2026 to 2028, including a detailed picture of supply and demand based on household’s intentions in mid-2025.
Short term housing needs by type and size
Based on the intentions of households expressed in 2025, and before applying affordability criteria, over the three-year period 2026 to 2028:
- there was an overall anticipated shortfall of 310 dwelling units, unless new dwellings would be created
- there was a potential shortfall of around 190 units in the owner-occupier sector; in particular, there was potential shortfall of 820, 2-bedroom properties in this sector
- under the baseline scenario of +400 net migration, there was a potential shortfall of around 10 units of non-qualified accommodation; in particular, there was a potential shortfall of 420 units of 1-bedroom properties in this sector
In respect of net migration:
- the potential surpluses and shortfalls in the qualified tenures of accommodation were impacted less by the level of net inward migration during the following three years, than non-qualified accommodation
- under a net nil annual migration scenario there is an overall surplus of around 500 units in the non‑qualified accommodation sector, particularly 2‑bedroom accommodation
- under a +800 annual migration scenario the shortfall of 1-bedroom non‑qualified accommodation, of 860 units, is the largest of any tenure and size combination
- there was a decrease in the proportion of the respondents intending to move outside Jersey compared to the previous survey (from 34% in 2022, to 28% in 2025), but this was still above historic levels (around 13 to 15% in earlier surveys)
Longer term housing needs projections
In addition to the short term housing needs survey, longer term trends in needs for housing are derived from the most recent population and household projections.
These housing needs projections build upon the detailed household projections and assumes that each projected household will require a unit of accommodation. Additional information from the 2021 Census is used to estimate the relationship between household types and the accommodation required.
This analysis used the distribution of property type to households as observed in the 2021 census. It was based on the projected demographic change and assumed that the distribution of households to property type / size remained the same as was observed at the time of the census.
The difference in the projected number of each housing type compared to the starting point at the beginning of the projections gives the final assessment of housing need.
The total number of projected units required for both qualified and registered accommodation are summarised in the tables below.
Total additional projected qualified / entitled units required under different net migration scenarios
| Migration scenario | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | Average additional units required per year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1,000 | 220 | 1,440 | 3,100 | 4,730 | 280 |
| +700 | 160 | 1,050 | 2,170 | 3,190 | 190 |
| +325 | 80 | 570 | 1,010 | 1,250 | 70 |
| Net nil | 10 | 150 | 0 | -420 | -20 |
| -100 | -10 | 20 | -320 | -940 | -60 |
Total projected registered units required under different net migration scenarios
| Migration scenario | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | Average additional units required per year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1,000 | 940 | 2,400 | 3,150 | 3,790 | 220 |
| +700 | 680 | 1,690 | 2,200 | 2,640 | 160 |
| +325 | 360 | 800 | 1,010 | 1,190 | 70 |
| Net nil | 80 | 20 | -20 | -70 | 0 |
| -100 | 0 | -210 | -340 | -450 | -30 |
Detailed data tables for each of these projection scenarios can be found on open data.
Data sources, past reports, and methods
Data tables and supplementary information associated with this release can be found on our open data site: Future Housing Needs – Datasets – Open Data.
Find past reports on our release calendar.
Full details of the methodology used in the Future Housing Needs report, including changes from previous reports, can be found in the Future Housing Needs Methodology document.
The methods used to produce household projections can be found in the population and household methodology document. A summary of the changes since the previous projections can be found in this explainer document.