Population projections

Population size

The overall population size of Jersey is an important factor for future planning. A growing or declining population can have major impacts on the future requirements of the Island’s economy, infrastructure, and provision of housing and public services.

In respect of the total population size by 2080, the +325 net migration scenario results in an increase in a relatively stable overall population, whilst higher net migration scenarios result in an increasing size and lower (and negative) migration scenarios result in population decrease.

Projections by age group

Working age population

The size of the working age population is an important component as it provides a good indicator of the size of the future workforce.

Older age population

The size of the older age population is an important factor in respect of the provision of services in a jurisdiction. This is particularly relevant in respect of planning Government expenditure on old age pension and the provision of heath and care services.

Younger age population

The size of the younger age population, particularly those of compulsory school age is an important consideration for the planning of future education and childcare facilities and resources.
It is important to note that the size of this population is heavily dependent on the fertility assumptions that are used, and these projections assume that recent trends in Jersey’s birth rate continues.

Projected dependency ratio

The dependency ratio is the ratio of non-working age to working age persons in the population. The non-working age population includes those aged below working age (some of which will subsequently enter the working age group) and those above working age.

This ratio provides important information relating to the economic and social health of a population. A higher dependency ratio indicates that a larger proportion of the population is not available to the potential labour force which creates economic activity to support the wider population.

Household projections

The projected number of households needs to take into account both the projected population size as well as any likely change to household size. As seen from previous census data the ratio of the number of persons per household has been declining over the last five decades.

The total number of projected households is summarised in the table and figure below.

Data sources and methods

The data sources and methods can be found in the appendices of the population projections report and household and housing needs projections report.

Find data and past reports

Find past reports on our release calendar.

You can find the data tables for the projection scenarios for both population and households on the open data website.