The latest population and household projections for Jersey have been published today by Statistics Jersey.
The projections show how Jersey’s population could change over the next 55 years, under a range of net migration scenarios, and help inform planning for housing, public services and the workforce. Net migration is the difference between the number of people moving to Jersey, and the number leaving, and has averaged +380 people per year over the last decade.
While net migration is a key variable for understanding population changes, the projections also show how changes in fertility and life expectancy could impact on our population size and characteristics.
The reports include five net migration scenarios:
- Net nil annual migration: an equal number of people move to and leave Jersey each year
- +200 annual net migration: 200 more people move to Jersey than leave each year
- +400 annual net migration: 400 more people move to Jersey than leave each year, roughly in line with recent trends
- +600 annual net migration: 600 more people move to Jersey than leave each year
- +800 annual net migration: 800 more people move to Jersey than leave each year
Population
The projections show that if recent levels of net migration continue, and under central assumptions of fertility and life expectancy, the population of Jersey would remain fairly stable until 2050, before falling to 96,460 people in 2080.
While the overall population would stay relatively stable in this scenario, the number of working age people would fall throughout the entire projection period, from 68,530 in 2024, to 62,770 by 2050, and finally down to 54,410 in 2080. The projections suggest that in order to maintain a stable working age population, a net migration of around +700 per year would be needed.
As well as the working age population, the report also projects the size of other groups, including children aged under 16 and older adults aged 65 and over.
Under all net migration scenarios, the number of people aged under 16 is projected to decrease from 2024 levels. Over time, this would mean fewer residents born in Jersey aging into the working age population.
In contrast, the population of people aged 65 and over, is projected to increase under all net migration scenarios over the period 2024 to 2050. For the +400 net migration scenario, the population aged 65 and over continues to increase after 2050 reaching 32,540 people in 2080, a 36% increase from 2024.
The dependency ratio is a measure of the number of dependent people (both younger and older age dependents) for every 100 working age people. It is used to help plan future public services, such as funding pressures, the number of school places, or the level of staffing for hospitals. A higher dependency ratio means fewer workers are supporting more dependents.
With annual net migration of +400, the dependency ratio would rise from 52.4 non-working-age people for every 100 people of working age at the end of 2024 to 60.9 by 2040. The ratio would continue to rise to 77.3 by 2080. This isn’t unique to the +400 net migration scenario as the dependency ratio increases for all projected net migration scenarios.
Housing
Households and housing needs projections have also been published. These projections help to inform the amount of housing that would be required for the different modelled population scenarios.
For the +400 net migration scenario, the number of households is projected to increase from 46,780 in 2025 to 49,430 in 2040. This 2,650-household difference is driven mostly by an increase in the number of smaller households such as single adult households, which increased by 1,840 households.
Under the projected scenarios, 170 dwellings, 140 qualified homes and 30 non-qualified homes, would need to be built per year to accommodate the higher number of households.
Find out more
Read the full reports:
Jersey population projections, 2025 to 2080
Jersey households and housing needs projections, 2025 to 2040
Jersey population and household projections: methodology document
Jersey population and household projections: explainer document