These statistics provide estimates of Jersey’s potential housing requirements for the three-year period 2023 to 2025, including a detailed picture of supply and demand based on household’s intentions in mid-2022.
Short term housing needs by type and size
Based on the intentions of households expressed in 2022, and before applying affordability criteria, over the three-year period 2023 to 2025:
- there was an overall anticipated shortfall of 610 dwelling units, unless new dwellings would be created
- there was a potential shortfall of around 910 units in the owner-occupier sector; in particular, there was a large potential shortfall of 2-bedroom properties in this sector
- under the baseline scenario of +700 net migration, there was a potential shortfall of around 220 units of registered accommodation; in particular, there was a potential shortfall of 1-bedroom properties in this sector
Three year housing surplus and shortfalls by tenure and size of dwelling 2023 to 2025
In respect of net migration
- the potential surpluses and shortfalls in the qualified tenures of accommodation were impacted less by the level of net inward migration during the following three years, than registered accommodation
- a level of net inward migration of around +500 people per year resulted in a balanced supply and demand of registered accommodation over the following three years
- a level of net inward migration of around +1,000 people per year resulted in a potential shortfall of almost 550 registered accommodation units over the following three years
- there was an increase in the proportion of the respondents intending to move outside Jersey compared to the previous survey (from 13% in 2018, to 34% in 2022)
Longer term housing needs projections
In addition to the short term housing needs survey, longer term trends in needs for housing are derived from the most recent population and household projections.
These housing needs projections build upon the detailed household projections and assumes that each projected household will require a unit of accommodation. Additional information from the 2021 Census is used to estimate the relationship between household types and the accommodation required.
This analysis used the distribution of property type to households as observed in the 2021 census. It was based on the projected demographic change and assumed that the distribution of households to property type / size remained the same as was observed at the time of the census.
The difference in the projected number of each housing type compared to the starting point at the beginning of the projections gives the final assessment of housing need.
The total number of projected units required for both qualified and registered accommodation are summarised in the tables below.
Total additional projected qualified / entitled units required under different net migration scenarios
| Migration scenario | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | Average additional units required per year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1,000 | 220 | 1,440 | 3,100 | 4,730 | 280 |
| +700 | 160 | 1,050 | 2,170 | 3,190 | 190 |
| +325 | 80 | 570 | 1,010 | 1,250 | 70 |
| Net nil | 10 | 150 | 0 | -420 | -20 |
| -100 | -10 | 20 | -320 | -940 | -60 |
Total projected registered units required under different net migration scenarios
| Migration scenario | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | Average additional units required per year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1,000 | 940 | 2,400 | 3,150 | 3,790 | 220 |
| +700 | 680 | 1,690 | 2,200 | 2,640 | 160 |
| +325 | 360 | 800 | 1,010 | 1,190 | 70 |
| Net nil | 80 | 20 | -20 | -70 | 0 |
| -100 | 0 | -210 | -340 | -450 | -30 |
Detailed data tables for each of these projection scenarios can be found on open data.
Data sources and methods
For the housing needs analysis, information on intentions was collected through a set of questions included in the 2022 round of the Jersey Opinions and Lifestyle Survey.
Additionally, some other data sources are used such as ONS death rates (with Jersey adjustments for certain ages) and census for initial housing stock figures.
Find data and past reports
Find past reports on our release calendar.
You can find future housing needs data on the open data website.