Population size
The overall population size of Jersey is an important factor for future planning. A growing or declining population can have major impacts on the future requirements of the Island’s economy, infrastructure, and provision of housing and public services.
At the end of 2024, the population was provisionally estimated to be 104,540.
The +400 net migration scenario best reflects recent net migration trends (over the last 10 years). This scenario projects an increase in population up to 2040, when the population would reach 105,720, followed by a decrease to a population size of 96,460 by 2080.
Projections by age group
Working age population
The size of the working age population provides a good indicator of the size of the workforce. In these statistics, working age adults are considered as those aged 16 to 64 inclusive, to align with the UK Office for National Statistics labour market statistics.
At the end of 2024, the working age population was provisionally estimated to be 68,530.
The +400 net migration scenario (with mid-range fertility and life expectancy assumptions) projects a decrease in the working age population over the period 2026 to 2080, falling to a working age population of 54,410.
Around +700 net migration per year would be needed to maintain a stable working age population until 2080 using the mid-range fertility and life expectancy assumptions.
Older age population
The size of the older age population is an important factor in the provision of services in a jurisdiction. This is particularly relevant for planning Government expenditure on old age pension and the provision of heath and care services.
At the end of 2024, the size of this population was provisionally estimated to be 20,600.
The choice of net migration scenario does not materially impact the size of the population aged 65 and over until around 2050. This is because immigration is largely made up of working age people with very few aged 65 and over. Therefore, the impact of changing net migration scenarios is not fully realised until larger numbers of the relatively younger, projected inward migrants age into the population aged 65 and over.
The +400 net migration scenario projects an increase of the population aged 65 and over to 28,310 by 2040, and to 32,540 by 2080.
Younger age population
The size of the younger age population, particularly those of compulsory school age, is an important consideration for the planning of future education and childcare facilities and resources.
It is important to note that the size of this population is heavily dependent on the fertility assumptions that are used. These projections assume that recent trends in Jersey’s birth rate continue. Alternative assumptions are available in the latest report, the Projections explorer, and Open Data.
Net migration is a large determining factor in the future size of the population aged under 16. This is due to both children moving to Jersey, and adults moving to Jersey then having children.
The +400 net migration scenario, combined with mid-range fertility and life expectancy assumptions, projects a decrease in the size of the population aged under 16 to 11,690 by 2040 and a further decrease to 9,510 by 2080.
Dependency ratio
The dependency ratio is the ratio of non-working age to working age people in the population. The working age population in these statistics are those aged between 16 and 64 years inclusive. The non-working age population includes those aged below working age (some of whom will subsequently enter the working age group) and those above working age.
This ratio provides important information relating to the economic and social health of a population. A higher dependency ratio indicates that a smaller proportion of the population is available as a workforce to create the economic activity the wider population is dependent on.
At the end of 2024, the dependency ratio was provisionally estimated to be 52.5 dependently aged people per 100 of working age.
The +400 net migration scenario, combined with mid-range fertility and life expectancy assumptions, projects an increase in the dependency ratio to 60.9 dependently aged people per 100 people of working age by 2040, with a further increase to 77.3 by 2080.
Projections data explorer
Household projections
The projected number of households needs to take into account both the projected population size as well as any likely change to household size. As seen from previous census data, the ratio of the number of persons per household has been declining over the last five decades.
Number of people per household, 1971 to 2021
The total number of projected households is shown in the figure below.
The households projections indicate that for a +400 net migration scenario, the number of households will increase from just under 47,000 in 2025 to over 49,000 in 2040.
Data sources and methods
These projections were produced using data from our population and migration statistics. The fertility and life expectancy assumptions were produced in part using births and fertility data and mortality and life expectancy data from Public Health Intelligence.
The methods used to produce these projections can be found in this methodology document. A summary of the changes since the previous projections can be found in this explainer document.
Find data and past reports
Find past reports on our release calendar.
The full data behind the projections reports, including projections for two additional migration scenarios (+325 and +700) are provided in supplementary tables.
You can also find the data tables for the projection scenarios for both population projections and household projections on the open data website.