The Future Housing Needs report provides estimates of Jersey’s potential housing requirements for a three-year period in terms of the type, tenure and size of dwelling unit. This includes supply and demand from demographic changes based on household projections and the intentions of households. Housing intentions are gauged using the Jersey Opinions and Lifestyle Survey, which includes questions every three years on housing intentions.
What does it aim to do?
The report aims to provide a short-term forecast of housing need in Jersey, based upon both demographics and intentions. The longer-term household projections that Statistics Jersey produce can only look at changes in housing needs based on demographics.
This means that the report shows:
- expected supply (existing; out-migrant; death and care) of properties by tenure, type and size
- expected demand (existing; concealed; in-migrant) of properties by tenure, type and size
- the resultant net surpluses and shortfalls of properties
- whether households can afford their intentions without assistance
- the effect of different levels of migration on the availability of housing
The report does not show:
- expected supply from the construction of new properties
- expected demand of care home beds
- expected demand of properties for the construction industry (either for renovation or demolition)
- the number of empty properties in the Island
Supply
Supply comes from three different areas:
- existing supply: properties becoming available due to the currently occupying householders moving to a different type or size of dwelling.
- out-migrant supply: properties becoming available due to the currently occupying householders leaving the Island
- death and care supply: properties becoming available due to the currently occupying householders moving into care homes or dying
It should be emphasised that the supply component of this analysis does not include any new dwellings available at or completed since the survey, nor any planned or approved developments.
Demand
Demand comes from three different areas.
- existing demand: properties needed due to households moving to a different type or size of dwelling
- concealed demand: properties needed due to individuals moving out of an existing household for example, an individual moving into rental or owner occupancy from living with family
- in-migrant demand: properties needed for those coming into the Island during the three year period
Data sources
Existing supply, existing demand and concealed demand are all based upon responses from the Jersey Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. These cover households moving within Jersey or new households forming in Jersey. Survey results are scaled up based upon the number of households the latest Jersey census, currently the 2021 Census.
Out-migrant supply and in-migrant demand are based upon the latest population and household projections, currently Jersey population projections; 2025 to 2080.
Death and care supply is based upon life-table analysis of households from the latest census. With properties projected to become death and care supply when all occupants are either no longer alive or move into a care setting. Death rates are based on Jersey‑adjusted ONS projected death rates: Past and projected period and cohort life tables – Office for National Statistics.
Long-term average ratios of houses becoming empty due to deaths compared with householders moving into care homes are used to account for houses becoming empty due to individuals going into care.
It should be noted that availability of space in care homes could reduce the number of properties which become empty due to householders going into care.
Migration
The numbers of potential inward and outward migrant households included in the main analysis are based on the latest population projections by Statistics Jersey, Jersey population projections; 2025 to 2080.
Graduation factor
This report has added a graduation factor for individuals moving from non-qualified accommodation into qualified tenures, to maintain consistency with long-term household projections that take this into account.
This uses census proportions based on continuous years of residency for those with Registered and Entitled for work status. Some individuals will optionally choose to remain in non-qualified accommodation once they are qualified, as such not all individuals are automatically moved from non-qualified rental accommodation to qualified rental accommodation.
Survey sample and response rate
As in previous rounds of the housing needs survey since 2012, questions relating to housing requirements over the next three-year period were included within the Jersey Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (JOLS).
In the 2025 JOLS, around 3,950 households were randomly sampled, representing about 9% of all private households in Jersey. A response rate of 33% was achieved; it should be noted that this only includes those households that were asked the future housing needs questions. A small subset of the overall response rate to JOLS were not asked the future housing needs questions, due to the sampling design of the 2025 survey.
Prior to the 2012 Future Housing Needs report, housing intentions were measured using a standalone housing needs survey, rather than via questions included in JOLS.
Survey data and weighting
Using information from the latest Jersey Census, the survey results from respondent households are weighted by tenure type and raised to the full Island total number of households.
Household
A household is defined as one person living alone or a group of people (not necessarily related), living at the same address, who share cooking facilities, and share a living room or sitting room or dining area.