Introduction
This report is one of a collection covering Jersey’s population at the end of 2025. The statistics are produced using linked administrative data, which is information held by public authorities for delivering services. The report provides:
- revised population and migration estimates for 2024
- provisional population and migration estimates for 2025
- breakdowns of the population by age and sex
Further detailed population statistics can be found in the additional reports on:
Linked administrative data provides timely, wide-ranging evidence of individuals accessing services in Jersey and is used to determine whether someone was resident or not at specific points in time. More information on the methods used is available in the Methodology and quality report.
Tier 1 Statistics
This report contains Tier 1 Statistics, as designated under the Statistics and Census (Jersey) Law 2018.
Tier 1 Statistics are those identified as essential for decision-making in Jersey, meeting the highest standards of quality, integrity, and continuity. For more information about Tier 1 Statistics and the criteria they meet, visit Tier 1 statistics.
Things you need to know
Numbers have been rounded independently. As a result, year-on-year changes may not match the difference between the rounded current and previous numbers, and totals may not equal the sum of the rounded parts.
Main points
- The population at the end of 2025 is provisionally estimated to be 104,490, essentially the same as the end of 2024.
- The provisional population estimate for the end of 2024, published in last year’s report, has been revised to 104,500, a downwards revision of 30.
- Natural change remained negative in 2025, with 200 more deaths than births, after turning negative in 2022.
- Net migration was +180 in 2025 (more immigration than emigration), down from +550 in 2024, due to lower immigration.
- Without migration, the working age population would have fallen in the last five years by an average of 370 people per year due to ageing and deaths.
- The population aged 65 years and over grew by 13% between 2020 and 2025, while the number of under 16-year-olds fell by 7%.
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Total population
After a long period of year-on-year growth going back to at least the year 2000, the population remained relatively stable between December 2018 and December 2022 (around when the UK left the EU and the COVID-19 pandemic).
The population at the end of 2025 was 104,490, similar to the end of 2024. There were year-on-year increases in the two years prior, 2023 and 2024.
The updated population estimate for the end of 2024 is 104,500, revised down by 30 from the provisional estimate of 104,540 in last year’s report.
The quarterly population (month end March, June, September, December) typically follows a seasonal pattern. The population is typically larger at the end of September when there are more seasonal workers living in the Island. The seasonal pattern was less prominent during 2020 but returned in 2021.
Natural change and net migration
The change in Jersey’s resident population is made up of two components:
- natural change – the number of births minus the number of deaths
- net migration – the number of people arriving minus the number of people leaving
In 2025:
- natural change remained negative at -200 (more deaths than births)
- net migration was +180 (more immigration than emigration), down from +550 in 2024
- total annual change was close to zero, unlike 2024 which had a total change of +480
Natural change remained negative for the fourth year running since 2022, with 200 more deaths than births in 2025. It has shown a steady decrease since at least 2012.
Net migration for 2025 was +180, meaning more people immigrated than emigrated. However this was offset by the decreasing effect of natural change. As a result, the total population remained similar to year-end 2024.
Net migration has varied more year-to-year than natural change. As a result, year-to-year differences in total change are greatly influenced by net migration.
In last year’s report, net migration in 2024 was provisionally estimated to be +670. This report revises the 2024 estimate to +550. See the Methodology and quality report for details on provisional estimates and revisions.
Births and deaths
Births and deaths of Jersey residents make up what is referred to as natural change.
In 2025:
- there were more deaths than births, a trend seen since 2022
- there were 710 births of Jersey residents, a decline from 870 in 2020 (a 19% decrease)
- there were 910 deaths of Jersey residents, an increase from 760 in 2020 (an 18% increase)
Immigration and emigration
Migration is made up of immigration (people moving to live in Jersey) and emigration (people resident in Jersey leaving to live elsewhere).
In 2025:
- the level of immigration was 3,620, down from 4,040 in 2024
- the level of emigration was 3,430, similar to the 3,490 figure in 2024
- as a result, net migration was +180, down from +550 in 2024
Immigration was higher than emigration during 2017 and 2018; this pattern changed to higher or equal emigration between 2019 and 2021. The historic pattern of higher immigration than emigration (and therefore positive net migration) returned between 2022 and 2024. Immigration was marginally higher than emigration in 2025.
Population by age
This section examines the age structure of the population. The population is grouped into broad age categories: children (aged under 16), working age (aged 16 to 64), and pensioners (aged 65 and over). Some subsections present data for smaller age groups, alongside summary measures such as median age and the dependency ratio.
Total population by age
The largest change in the five‑year period between the end of 2020 and the end of 2025 was among the population aged 65 years and over, which was an increase of 13%. In the same period, the population of under 16s decreased by 7% and the population aged 16 to 64 remained about the same.
Average age
The median age has been steadily increasing since 1981. In 2025, the median age was 45.0 years. In other words, half of residents were aged under 45 years, and the other half were aged 45 years and over.
Dependency ratio
The dependency ratio measures the number of dependants (non-working age) relative to the working age population, expressed as the number of dependants per 100 working age individuals.
The standard definition we use for working age is those aged 16 to 64. This allows a like-for-like demographic comparison over time.
The old age dependency ratio is the number of old age dependants divided by those who are working age. The standard definition for old age dependants are those aged 65 and over.
The dependency ratio can also be calculated using the state pension age as the start of old dependent age instead. The state pension age began increasing from age 65 after 31 December 2019 and will reach age 67 from 1 March 2031.
Between 2015 and 2025, using the standard definition:
- the overall dependency ratio rose from 48.7 to 53.5 dependently aged people for every 100 people of working age, indicating a growing dependent population relative to those of working age
- the old age dependency ratio increased from 24.7 to 31.1 people aged 65 and over for every 100 people of working age
- the increase of the old age dependency ratio over the 10 years is the main contributor to the increase in the overall dependency ratio
The state pension age definition of the dependency ratio is 50.6 (1.9 lower than the standard definition) and has slowly fallen since the end of 2021.
For context, Jersey’s dependency ratio can be compared with that of the UK at mid-year 2024, the latest year for which UK age breakdowns are available, using the 16 to 64 working age definition. The overall dependency ratio in the UK was 59.2, compared with 52.4 in Jersey, indicating a higher overall dependency burden in the UK by 6.8 percentage points. In contrast, the old-age dependency ratios were very similar, at 30.2 in the UK and 29.8 in Jersey. The difference in the overall dependency ratio is therefore attributable to the UK having a relatively larger population of young dependants.
Population by age and sex
In 2025, there were 3,090 people aged 85 years and over. This increased from 2,190 in 2015, representing an increase of 41%.
There were more males (42,150) than females (41,140) for those aged 64 and under. By contrast, for those aged 65 and over, there were more females (11,460) than males (9,740).
Factors contributing to population change by age
The age structure of the population is affected by multiple factors, including migration (into and out of the Island) as well as births, deaths, and ageing. Changes in the population of the age groups shown are broken down by:
- net migration – the number of people arriving minus the number of people leaving
- net other effects – the total change in an age group caused by births, deaths, and people moving between age groups as they get older; in other words, babies join the under 16 group, people move into new age groups as they age, and some people die (mostly in the 65 and over group).
Under 16
Net migration among those under age 16 was +110 in 2025. Between 2012 and 2020, net migration was positive for this age group. This changed briefly between 2021 and 2022, when net migration was negative.
The net contribution of the other effects (births, ageing, and deaths) on the under 16 group was -310 in 2025. In other words, more people aged out of this group than were born into it, and there were very few deaths. The negative contribution of other effects to population change in the year 2025 was the second largest year-end figure during the period 2012 to 2025, with the year 2024 being the largest at -360.
16 to 64
The working age population decreased by 340 people between 2024 and 2025. However, it did not change notably over the five-year period 2020 to 2025. This was because the recent period of positive net migration for this age group helped to offset the prior period of negative net migration and the net decreasing effect of ageing and deaths.
Net migration among working age people remained positive in 2025, with 120 more people immigrating than emigrating, but was much lower than the revised 2024 figure of +570. The lower levels between 2019 and 2021 coincided with the UK’s exit from the EU and the COVID-19 pandemic.
The net of other effects (ageing and deaths) has been negative for the aged 16 to 64 group since at least 2012 (when these statistics are available from). In other words, the number of people reaching age 65 or dying has been greater than the number of people reaching age 16. This means that the working age population would have fallen every year since at least 2012 in the absence of migration. In the last five years, this would have resulted in an average decrease of 370 working age people per year.
65 and over
The number of residents aged 65 and over increased by 13% over the five years leading up to 2025 (as noted in Table 1).
Net migration was -50 among those aged 65 and over in 2025 and has been slightly negative or close to zero since 2012. This means that the changes in the size of this age group are predominantly driven by other effects (ageing and deaths).
The net impact of other effects (ageing and deaths) was an increase of 560 for the aged 65 and over group in 2025. In other words, more people reached age 65 than died among this group. This was seen in every year between 2012 and 2025.
Migration rates by age
Changes in the under 16 and in the 16 to 64 populations are partly influenced by net migration. To compare how migration affects different age groups, immigration and emigration rates are shown, defined as the number of people moving in or out over the previous 12 months per 1,000 individuals in each group, calculated using the mid-year population.
This approach allows meaningful comparison between groups of different sizes, which is important as in 2025 the working age population was more than three times larger than the population aged 65 and over, and more than four times larger than the under 16 population.
In 2025, the aged 16 to 64 group had the highest migration rates, with 44 inward migrants and 43 outward migrants per 1,000 people.
The lowest migration rates were for the population aged 65 and over, with 8 inward migrants and 11 outward migrants per 1,000 people.
Immigration rates among those aged under 16 increased since 2024, while the emigration rates in this age group showed a peak in 2022.
Immigration and emigration rates have been relatively steady for the those aged 65 and over since 2017, at around 10 per 1,000 residents aged 65 and over; these both increased slightly in 2020 and 2021.
Revisions
The population estimation method requires 12 months of activity data after the reference date to help distinguish between individuals who have left the Island and those who remain resident but have limited recent activity. This introduces considerable lag in publishing accurate population and migration estimates.
Provisional population and migration estimates are therefore produced for the prior year with a reduced set of activity data to provide more timely information. These provisional estimates will be revised and replaced with final estimates in the following year’s report, when the full set of data has become available.
We have also revised the population estimates in 2016 and 2017, and the migration estimates in 2016, 2017, and 2018. This is a historic revision due to new data sources or improved methods that identified an additional 200 children aged 2 to 4 years old who were resident during the period.
More information about provisional estimates and revisions can be found in the Methodology and quality report and in the revisions policy.
Data sources and methods
Population and migration estimates are produced annually using linked administrative data. The latest of these estimates are for the year 2025.
Administrative data is data collected by the government for the purposes of running services such as education, health, and social security benefits.
For detailed information on how population estimates are calculated from linked administrative data see the latest Methodology and quality report.
Further detailed population statistics can be found in the additional reports on:
Downloadable datasets for these statistics, including summaries and breakdowns by age and sex, are available on Open Data.