We often get asked how we work out how many people live in Jersey. The answer isn’t straightforward. Producing population estimates has come a long way since the days when countries relied on census data alone.
The census does, of course, continue to inform us of how many people live in Jersey and what the population looks like. Statistics Jersey still run a census, usually every 10 years, where every Islander is asked to fill out a questionnaire. The information collected is very valuable for producing statistics, but it’s expensive and time consuming to do – both for Statistics Jersey and for Islanders who have to complete it. It’s also worth pointing out that the census only captures who was living in the island on census day and that the most recent one was in 2021. So how do we know how many people live here now?
The short answer is that we use what’s called administrative data – information already collected by public services as part of their day‑to‑day work. This includes things like social security contributions, tax records, school attendance and healthcare activity. By carefully linking these together, we can build up a picture of the population that is more up‑to‑date and more detailed than ever before.
At the centre of the process is what we call a statistical population register. This is created by linking records from different departments at an individual level (with personal identifiers removed before analysis to protect privacy). We then look at people’s “activity” – their interactions with services over time – to help answer a key question: were they living in Jersey at a given point in time? For example, paying contributions, attending school, or visiting a GP all provide signals that someone is resident. By applying a consistent set of rules to this activity, we estimate who is in the population each year, and then bring those together into the overall figures.
Because this approach uses existing data, it allows us to produce a timelier picture, but it also means there are a few important things to understand:
• we need data from before and after a point in time to be confident someone is resident, or has left the Island, which is why final figures take time to produce
• to meet demand for more up to date figures, we publish provisional estimates first, which are later revised as more data becomes available
• the method is continuously improving as new data sources, including work permits and dog licence records, are added to strengthen our estimates
• some information is not readily available in administrative sources, such as religious beliefs or ethnicity (unlike a census, where we could ask Islanders about this directly)
What are the population estimates telling us?
At the end of 2024, Jersey’s population was provisionally estimated at 104,540, an increase of around 510 people over the year. Growth continues to be driven mainly by migration – there were about 670 more people arriving than leaving in 2024 – while natural change (births minus deaths) was negative, with more deaths than births for the third consecutive year. In other words, without migration, the overall population would be falling.
Jersey’s population is clearly ageing. During the past five years, the number of people aged 65 and over has grown by around 12%, while the number of children aged under 16 has fallen by about 7%. This shift matters because it affects everything from healthcare demand to the size of the workforce. In fact, our analysis shows that without migration, the working‑age population would have been shrinking for more than a decade.
Since Brexit, we’ve seen a big change in the nationalities of people coming to Jersey. The number of residents from outside Europe has risen sharply – up 172% between 2019 and 2024 – while European nationalities have fallen slightly. This shift coincides with changes in recruitment and immigration rules, with a large increase in people arriving on temporary work permits – from just 80 in 2020 to around 1,740 in 2024.
These changes affect residential statuses. Many new arrivals come in on Registered status while longer-term residents gradually move into Entitled for work and then Entitled status over time. Although 83% of adults in Jersey have Entitled status, there has been noticeable growth in other groups. In particular, Licensed residents – migrants who are considered essential employees – increased by 41% between 2019 and 2024.
Population estimates are about much more than a single number. They bring together many different data sources which tell us how Jersey is changing – who is living here, how the population is evolving, and what that might mean for the future. We’ll continue refining our methodology as new data becomes available, but our aim remains the same: to provide high quality, impartial statistics that help everyone better understand our Island. Our next report is out on the 23 September 2026. It will have provisional population estimates for the end of 2025, and updated estimates for 2024.
