In July, Statistics Jersey hosted a Project Trident student for work experience. We tasked her with using our statistics to think about what life might be like when she’s 40…
Introduction
Imagine stepping off the ferry in Jersey in 2048. The streets are familiar, but the people, workplaces and technology around you have changed. Some of today’s students are running businesses, developing new technologies or making decisions that shape the Island’s future. Others may have moved away, while new residents have arrived. The question is: what will Jersey look like when my generation turns 40?
During my Trident Work Experience at Statistics Jersey, I learned that while no one can predict the future with complete certainty, data can help us understand where current trends might lead. By looking at population projections and demographic changes, we can build a picture of the Jersey that could exist in the late 2040s. This blog explores what Jersey could look like when I’m 40 – and what today’s numbers might tell us about tomorrow’s Island.
Jersey could be an older island
By the time I am 40, Jersey could look very different from the Island I know today. One of the biggest changes is likely to be the age of the population. While exploring Statistics Jersey’s data, one trend stood out straight away: Jersey’s population is getting older. According to the latest population projections, under the central (+400 net migration) scenario, the population aged 65 and over is projected to grow from around 20,600 people in 2024 to more than 32,500 by 2080.
This could have a noticeable impact on everyday life in Jersey. As the population ages, there may be greater demand for healthcare services, care facilities and support systems for older residents. Technology will likely play a key role in helping the Island stay connected and ensure people are supported. Public spaces, transport networks and community facilities may also need to become more accessible and age-friendly to help people stay active and independent for longer.
Housing could change too. Population projections are already used to help inform future housing planning, and an older population may increase demand for homes designed to support independent living. Future developments could include more accessible housing, homes adapted for later life and communities that make it easier for people to remain close to family, friends and local services.
At the same time, Jersey could become more multi-generational. With people living longer, there may be more opportunities for different age groups to live, work and connect alongside one another.
There could be fewer young people
Another trend that caught my attention was the number of young people in Jersey. Statistics Jersey’s population projections suggest that the number of children aged under 16 is expected to decrease from current levels under all migration scenarios.
If this trend continues, growing up in Jersey could look quite different to the experience of today’s students. Schools may have fewer pupils, class sizes could change, and there may be greater opportunities for more individual support in education. A smaller younger population could also have an impact beyond the classroom, affecting everything from sports clubs to community activities.
As someone currently in education, it’s interesting to think that future students may experience a different school environment from the one I know today. The data suggests that young people could become an increasingly valuable part of Jersey’s future workforce and community.
The workforce may need to adapt
Looking beyond school, employers may find themselves competing for a smaller pool of young workers. The latest population projections suggest that the number of working-age residents could decline over the coming decades unless migration remains relatively high. In fact, the projections estimate that net migration of around +700 people per year would be needed to maintain a stable working-age population in the long term.
If there are fewer people of working age, the way we work may need to evolve. Technology could play a bigger role, with automation and artificial intelligence helping businesses complete tasks more efficiently and provide services virtually. Flexible, remote working may become even more common, allowing employers to attract talent from a wider range of locations. As the Island adapts to demographic changes, employers may need to think differently about recruitment, training and retaining staff.
What’s most exciting is that the jobs of 2048 may look very different from those that exist today. Some careers could be transformed by new technology, while others may not even have been invented yet. Looking at the data, it’s clear that the future workforce won’t just be shaped by people, it will be shaped by how we respond to change.
My final thoughts
Of course, no one can predict exactly what Jersey will look like in 2048. The ideas in this blog are based on current trends and a little imagination. Some of my thoughts may with time turn out to be accurate, while others could look very different in reality. That’s the fascinating thing about data – it can’t tell us the future, but it can help us prepare for it.
My time at Statistics Jersey has shown me how important data is in understanding the world around us. As a Trident student, it’s been exciting to see firsthand how statistics can be used to tell stories, answer questions and encourage conversations about the future. And who knows? When I turn 40, maybe I’ll look back at this blog and reflect on how the Jersey of 2048 compares with the possibilities I’ve imagined.
Want to explore the data yourself?
- Population Projections 2025–2080 report: Population projections 2025 – 2080 | Statistics Jersey
- Population Projections Dashboard: Population projections | Statistics Jersey
- Population and Household projections: Latest population and household projections for Jersey published today | Statistics Jersey
